The Hidden Waste Crisis Behind Black Friday Parcels
Black Friday is expected to generate £3.9bn in UK spending this year, but there’s a hidden cost lurking behind the bargains. Millions of parcels arrive at homes and businesses in boxes that are far larger than necessary, wasting packaging materials and creating a surge in unnecessary delivery emissions.
New analysis from our own cardboard waste experts reveals how oversized packaging is contributing to a Black Friday waste crisis. 3,000 tonnes of excess cardboard to 600 tonnes of avoidable CO₂e are released in a single day.
It’s not just an environmental problem. It costs retailers money, increases delivery inefficiencies and leads to unnecessary waste entering commercial waste streams.
Key takeaways
- UK shoppers set to receive 42.8 million parcels on Black Friday 2025.
- Oversized packaging leads to 300,000 m³ of empty box space being shipped nationwide.
- This equates to 3,000 tonnes of unnecessary cardboard used in one day.
- Wasted space forces 24,972 additional van loads onto UK roads.
Those extra deliveries generate 600 tonnes of avoidable CO₂e.
How oversized packaging became
a Black Friday problem
Black Friday parcel volumes continue to rise, with forecasts indicating that 42.8 million parcels are set to be delivered across the UK on a single day. With such high volumes, even small amounts of wasted space quickly escalate into major environmental impacts.
Studies from DHL, DS Smith, and Action Point Logistics show that e-commerce parcels typically contain 24% to 55% empty space. Even using a conservative midpoint of 35%, this unused volume spreads across millions of parcels and creates an astonishing level of waste.
Instead of tight, ample-sized boxes, retailers often rely on one or two generic box sizes for every order. As a result, many lightweight items are shipped in packaging that is two to three times larger than needed.
The outcome is predictable: more cardboard waste, more vans on the road, and more emissions.
The scale of the waste:
cardboard and emissions created by oversized boxes
Our analysis shows the full environmental impact of empty space inside Black Friday parcels.
300,000 m³ of empty space shipped in one day
Across all UK Black Friday deliveries, an estimated 300,000 cubic metres of completely unused space will be shipped around the country. That’s the equivalent of 120 Olympic swimming pools filled with nothing but air and packaging voids.
3,000 tonnes of unnecessary cardboard
Cardboard boxes aren’t weightless. A standard e-commerce box weighs around 200 grams. If 35% of that weight is unnecessary due to oversized design, then:
- 42,808,500 parcels × 70g of wasted material
= 2,996,000 kg
≈ 3,000 tonnes of avoidable cardboard waste
Much of this enters commercial waste streams immediately. This is a pressure point for retailers already dealing with rising costs associated with waste handling.
Businesses can reduce cardboard waste by improving separation and utilising dedicated cardboard recycling collections.
24,972 additional van loads on the road
Oversized packaging takes up more van space, forcing transport companies to make more delivery runs. Business Waste estimates:
- 24,972 extra van loads are required solely due to wasted box volume.
This also increases congestion during the busiest shopping period of the year.
600 tonnes of avoidable CO₂e
Using UK Government emissions factors for delivery vehicles, the wasted van capacity adds:
- 2,497,200 unnecessary kilometres driven
- 600 tonnes of avoidable CO₂e
For context, that’s equivalent to the annual emissions of 120 UK households, all generated from packaging inefficiency in a single day.
Why are retailers still using
oversized packaging?
Oversized boxes may look like an insignificant logistics oversight, but retail teams face structural challenges that make it difficult to avoid them.
1. Limited box size options
Fulfilment centres often only stock a few box sizes to simplify packing. When none fit perfectly, staff default to the nearest larger size.
2. Speed pressure in fulfilment centres
Packing teams prioritise rapid throughput, especially during Black Friday. Correct sizing takes time, and staff are often trained to grab the first item that comes to hand.
3. One-box-fits-all procurement policies
Companies that buy packaging in bulk often select fewer box types for cost efficiency, regardless of whether this creates greater waste downstream.
4. Poor item placement
Even when the box size is correct, inefficient packing introduces excess space that must be filled with paper or plastic void fillers.
5. Inaccurate demand forecasting
Retailers sometimes stock insufficient quantities of smaller boxes during peak seasons, forcing staff to overuse larger ones.
Oversized packaging is not a minor consumer annoyance. It is a deeply ingrained operational issue that costs businesses money and hinders environmental progress.
The emissions retailers don’t see:
the Black Friday delivery impact
The emissions linked to oversized packaging fall into three categories:
1. Manufacturing emissions
Producing unnecessary cardboard generates emissions upstream, including energy-intensive paper pulping and board production.
2. Transportation emissions
Wasted space equals wasted capacity. With 24,972 extra van loads:
- More fuel is burned
- More deliveries are required
- More congestion is created
3. End-of-life emissions
While cardboard is recyclable, it still needs to be collected, baled and processed. Oversized packaging increases the volume of waste entering business recycling systems.
Retailers using heavy packaging can improve performance by increasing recycling rates and diverting waste from landfill through packaging waste recycling services.
What retailers can do to
reduce Black Friday packaging waste
Here are practical steps businesses can take to cut waste during peak shopping periods:
Pack items more efficiently
Wasted space often occurs due to rushed packing rather than the box size. Taking seconds to position items correctly reduces the need for void filler.
Encourage customers to combine orders
Retailers can add a checkout option that allows customers to wait for all items to be packed together.
Offer more box sizes
If staff only have two or three box types available, wasted space is inevitable. Expanding box size options helps reduce environmental impact and shipping costs.
Conduct a packaging audit before peak periods
Auditing fulfilment processes ahead of Black Friday highlights:
- Common packing errors
- Products that are regularly boxed incorrectly
- Bottlenecks that cause oversized packaging
- Areas where smaller boxes could save money
Packaging audits save businesses money while reducing waste and emissions, particularly in fast-paced retail environments.
Expert insight:
why oversized packaging needs to change
Mark Hall, cardboard waste expert at Business Waste, said:
He adds:
Finally, he warns:
How to comply with
Black Friday packaging waste
If retailers commit to smarter packaging, the UK could:
- Cut thousands of tonnes of cardboard waste
- Remove millions of wasted kilometres from delivery networks
- Slash CO₂ emissions
- Reduce pressure on commercial waste systems
- Improve recycling rates
- Save money across packaging procurement and shipping
Oversized packaging is not just a logistics issue. It is a climate issue and a resource issue, and one that retailers can take measures to control.
To enhance retail waste performance during peak periods, explore our retail waste management service and our Black Friday waste insights.
Final thoughts
Oversized packaging is one of Black Friday’s most overlooked environmental problems. Our data shows that there are clear repercussions from this: more waste, more vans, more emissions. But with better packaging choices, smarter systems and stronger accountability, retailers could significantly reduce their environmental impact.
Businesses that prepare early for peak season packaging demands will reduce costs, minimise waste and support a cleaner delivery network across the UK.
To explore ways your organisation can reduce packaging waste, improve recycling or audit your packaging processes, contact us or call 0800 211 8390.
Methodology
- FedEx Europe estimated that 40.5 million parcels were delivered in the UK on Black Friday 2024.
- Industry forecasts show UK parcel volumes increasing by 5.7% in 2025, giving an estimated 42,808,500 parcels for Black Friday 2025.
- Studies from DHL/Action Point Logistics/DS Smith show that ecommerce parcels contain 24–55% unused space, so we took a 35% average when calculating the wasted space.
- A standard medium-sized ecommerce box typically weighs around 200g when empty.
- Based on the 35% wasted-space assumption, 70g of each parcel’s packaging weight is considered unnecessary.
- 42,808,500 parcels × 70g = 2,996,000 kg, or approximately 3,000 tonnes of unnecessary packaging used on Black Friday.
- Royal Mail’s medium parcel dimensions (61 cm × 46 cm × 46 cm) equal 129 litres of external volume, but ecommerce parcels typically use an average internal capacity of 20 litres.
- With 35% of that space typically unused, each parcel contains around 7 litres of empty space.
- 7 litres × 42,808,500 parcels = 299,659,500 litres, or around 300,000 m³ of empty box space shipped around the UK in a single day.
- To calculate the impact on delivery capacity, we used a typical delivery van cargo volume of 12 m³.
- At 20 L per parcel, oversized boxes require:
- 42,808,500 parcels x 20 L=856,170 m³ ÷ 12 m³ = 71,348 van loads.
- If boxes were right-sized (13 L per parcel), the required volume would be:
- 556,510.5 m³ ÷ 12 m³ = 46,376 van loads.
- Oversized packaging therefore forces an estimated 24,972 additional van loads on Black Friday alone.
- To estimate extra kilometres driven, we assumed a typical 100 km average Black Friday delivery route per van.
- 24,972 extra van loads × 100 km = 2,497,200 extra km driven solely due to wasted box space.
- For emissions, we used the UK Government’s 2024 greenhouse gas conversion factor for delivery vans up to 3.5 tonnes: 0.249 kg CO₂e per km.
- 2,497,200 km × 0.249 kg CO₂e = 621,000 kg CO₂e, or ≈600 tonnes of avoidable CO₂e generated purely from wasted packaging space.
- Figures are based on industry averages and published parcel forecasts and are intended to illustrate the likely scale of additional packaging rather than provide an exact national total.
- Data was calculated on 14/11/2025 and is subject to change.
Sources:
- https://www.finder.com/uk/banking/black-friday-statistics
- https://www.dhl.com/global-en/delivered/responsibility/a-complex-case-rethinking-todays-packaging-systems.html
- https://actionpoint.co.uk/putting-the-eco-in-e-commerce/
- https://www.dssmith.com/media/our-stories/2024/5/ppwr-the-packaging-and-packaging-waste-regulation-explained
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