Where will landfill run out first in the UK? Regional waste crisis explained

Landfill capacity is disappearing faster than most people realise. New analysis of Environment Agency data shows that several English regions could reach zero remaining landfill space within the next decade. In some areas, that reality has already arrived.

Waste management experts at Business Waste have reviewed the latest figures to identify where space is running out fastest, why capacity is declining and how this affects businesses that rely on legal waste disposal routes.

Landfill has played a shrinking role in the UK’s waste infrastructure for many years as recycling and recovery capacity has grown. However, many regions still rely heavily on landfill for general, bulky and non-recyclable waste.

Declining space is due to:

• A fall in the number of permitted sites since 2020

• Higher waste volumes are being diverted from illegal disposal

• Delays in approving new waste infrastructure

• Minimal new landfill development or expansion

• Increased commercial and construction waste pressures

As landfill disappears, the impact is felt most by local authorities and UK businesses who must pay rising disposal costs and transport waste further to find legal capacity.

A recent nationwide investigation revealed more than 8,000 illegal waste sites in the UK containing an estimated 13 million tonnes of unmanaged rubbish. Limited landfill options can push waste outside the regulated system, leading to:

• Criminal fly-tipping

• Unsafe dumping on private land

• Environmental damage

• Major costs for landowners and councils

Pressure will continue to rise if legal landfill options diminish faster than replacement infrastructure develops.

Waste producers will feel this long before regional capacity hits zero.

As landfill disappears, businesses may face:

• Higher waste management costs as disposal prices rise

• Longer haul distances, adding fuel and labour overheads

• Fewer disposal options for bulky or complex waste

• Higher gate fees, especially in pressured regions

• More compliance oversight due to landfill constraints

• Potential service delays around peak demand periods

Any business that produces general, mixed or construction waste will see tightening availability play into pricing and logistics.

Mark Hall, waste management expert at Business Waste, said:

England’s waste system depends on a balance between landfill, recycling and energy recovery. When one element contracts too quickly, the entire system is put under strain.

For example:

• The South West is only years away from full landfill capacity

• Areas including Bristol and Stroud already rely entirely on external disposal

• Transporting waste further increases costs for businesses

• New infrastructure is not coming online fast enough to replace lost capacity

This leaves businesses more exposed to cost volatility and operational risk.

Businesses can limit exposure by:

• Increasing recycling to reduce general waste volumes

• Reviewing waste contracts before renewal

• Choosing a provider with access to a nationwide disposal network

• Avoiding unnecessary bulky waste and landfill-only materials

Mark Hall added:

Business Waste supports over 30,000 UK organisations with waste collections and disposal solutions built to minimise landfill use and keep costs under control. We work with trusted, licensed waste carriers across the country to ensure compliance, resilience and continuity as capacity tightens.

Learn more about commercial waste management across the UK or call 0800 211 8390 for support with collections in your area.

1. Landfill capacity data for 2020 to 2024 were sourced from Environment Agency datasets covering all permitted landfill sites in England.
2. Local authority figures for 2024 were calculated by summing the remaining space of all landfill sites located within each authority.
3. Regional totals were produced by combining the local authority figures within each of the nine English regions.
4. The five-year change was calculated by comparing each region’s 2020 and 2024 capacity.
   1. The average annual change was found by dividing the total change by five years.
5. The estimated years remaining were produced by dividing each region’s current capacity by its average annual capacity loss. 
   1. Disclaimer: This provides an indicative projection rather than a fixed prediction.
6. All authorities with zero remaining landfill capacity were included to show the uneven distribution of remaining landfill space.

Data was collected as of December 3rd 2025, and is correct as of then.

1. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/nov/29/waste-sites-landfill-rubbish-uk-research
2. https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/residual-waste-infrastructure-capacity-note/residual-waste-infrastructure-capacity-note 
3. https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/changes-to-landfill-tax-rates-from-1-april-2021/changes-to-landfill-tax-rates-from-1-april-2021
4. https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/landfill-tax-rates-for-2024-to-2025
5. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/nov/29/waste-sites-landfill-rubbish-uk-research